When punters look at bets that they want to place, the sensible ones know that the bets to keep an eye out for are the ones that present them with an edge. Sometimes this will come in the form of a bookmaker over-pricing a market, for example, meaning that the bettor can take advantage. Often, those that follow the social media of footballers, say, will know that they’re going to miss a game before the bookies do and can use that information to their advantage. Whatever the reason, good punters look for edges where they can find them.
There are some bets, though, that will never allow the people looking at placing them to have an edge. These are usually wagers that placed on even money outcomes, but that aren’t given even money odds. Look at something like the toss of the coin in a cricket match, which is, by definition, a 50/50 outcome. The issue is that bookmakers won’t offer Evens in their odds, instead opting for something like 10/11. This is them putting their margin in place, which is what they always do, but it means that you can’t possibly catch them out with it.
Finding An Edge
There are all sorts of ways that punters might be able to find an edge when they’re betting. The reality is that bookmakers are literally unable to keep up-to-date on every single aspect of the sports and events that they offer bets on, so it is up to the bettor to do as much research as they can before they head into the betting market. Pick an event and there is a good chance that you’ll be able to find an edge for yourself if you do your research properly, but obviously you stand more of a chance if you bet on something less well-known.
If you’re thinking about placing a bet on the Liverpool match against Manchester United, for example, then the reality is that you’re unlikely to be able to find all that many markets in which there’s an edge that you can exploit. If, on the other hand, you become an expert in the Azerbaijan top-flight then the likelihood is that you will know far more than the average bookie that offers odds on the matches. This requires time, patience and a wealth of research, but it can allow you to take advantage of any mistakes in the bookmaker’s odds.
Bets To Avoid
In the modern era, bookmakers will look to offer odds on any market that they can. This is largely thanks to the fact that bettors will want to place a wager on anything that they’re offered. This can result in some people taking bets that they should be avoiding like the plague, based on the fact that there is no value to be found in the wagers. The most obvious example of this is a bet in which the outcome is 50/50 but the bookies’ odds are far from Evens. Yes, we all accept that bookmakers build a margin into their bets, but that doesn’t mean that you should just give them your money.
There are too many 50/50 bets across sports to mention here, but think of the sport that you like betting on and then try to think of things that happen where the outcome is the definition of random. The most obvious one is that of winning the toss, which is something that is usually carried out in pretty much every major sport you can bet on. Whether it be cricket or football, tennis or rugby, an act is carried out to decide which team or player will get to kick off, bowl first, serve or choose ends. Betting on this is completely futile.
There is no way to know which way the coin is going to land, so taking up a bookie on their offer of odds that aren’t Evens on an outcome that is 50/50 is akin to simply handing them your money. Yes, it is possible that you will win your bet, but that will be down to luck more than judgement and the bookmaker that you’re betting with will still make a profit from you regardless. You should work hard to avoid any wager in which the outcome cannot be at least assumed based on research and investigations, rather than blind luck.
If You Can’t Work Something Out, Don’t Bet On It
Let’s imagine that we’re betting on a football match. We can do all of the research in the world and still lose our wager. This is because all sports, but especially football, are liable to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. A mis-timed tackle can result in a red card being issued to a key play, say, or a freak gust of wind can take the ball past even the best goalkeepers in the world. Even so, the reality is that you can do plenty of research into the likely outcome of a match and bet in accordance with what you’ve found out.
Perhaps, for example, you know that one team is missing their star striker whilst the other has their best defender back from injury. Yes, the team without the striker might still win, but you know that the likelihood is that they won’t. Your research can tell you plenty about how a game will probably go, so the bet that you place will have more than just a little bit of an edge in your favour. There is no amount of research that you can do that will tell you which way a coin is going to land after it has been tossed by a match official, presuming that it is a far coin.
A simple rule of thumb with which you can avoid betting on things that you shouldn’t bet on is to ask whether any amount of research, even up to and including insider information, could see your bet be a successful one. If you don’t know how you could possibly win your wager even if you could ask the people taking part what they thought was going to happen, you really shouldn’t be placing the bet. That is the most sensible question to ask yourself before you place a wager. If it is a 50/50 outcome but the bookmaker you’re using isn’t offering Evens in their odds, don’t even think about placing the bet.