The dream of every punter is to get one over on their favourite bookmaker. This goes without saying and typically involves people trying to find an edge in their betting.
Sometimes this will see them turn to something like matched betting or arbing, whilst on other occasions it will mean hoping that a bookie has got their market wrong. Most of the time, of course, bookmakers don’t make such silly mistakes and people that are guilty of matched betting or arbing will soon find their accounts being limited or suspended. As a result, the best thing to do is to look for information that the bookmakers might not think about.
This is one of the only ways that punters can hope to get the better of gambling companies. The reality is that most bookies will always have significantly more in the way of statistical information and knowledge of form and so on. As a result, it is all but impossible to beat them by trying to use this kind of info, instead needing you to think outside the box. The good news is that we live in the most media-savvy era ever, meaning that there is often a wealth of information out there for bettors that bookies usually don’t consider when collating their odds.
What Information Do Bookmakers Usually Use?
If we’re going to talk about information that bookmakers don’t always factor in, the best place to start is by considering what it is that bookies use most of the time. This is what could be declared to be ‘standard’ information, coming from sources that tell a bookmaker about a team’s success rate, a horse’s statistics and how many times a tennis player has won against their opponent. There is almost no limit to the statistical information that a bookie can get hold of, largely thanks to the third-party companies that do all of the work for them.
Indeed, the idea of a bookmaker using their intuition and following their ‘heart’ when looking to place bets is all but dead nowadays. Rather than having one or two specialists in place per race meeting or football match, entire divisions are covered by the same number of people looking at what computers tell them from the analysis of the stats that have been fed into them. This means that punters who are willing to look away from ‘standard’ areas stand a chance of being able to find something out that the bookmakers don’t know.
Even the likes of betting exchanges are used by bookmakers to help them make their decision regarding the odds that they offer on an event. If it looks like people on the exchange are betting heavily on a horse that the bookies have got at long odds, for example, then the bookmakers will change their tack. Knowing that means that bettors can look to see how the exchanges are moving and place wagers before the bookmakers have time to react, but even that is a little too conforming when compared to other forms of information gathering.
Utilise The Media
If you’re hoping to find out some information that the bookmakers might not have, one of the best places to start is with the media. People are often giving interviews, both to newspapers and television shows and also to fan-led media organisations. This means that there is often the possibility of them saying something that won’t necessarily be picked up by the bookmakers in the immediate. Imagine, for example, a player telling a newspaper about how they are struggling to get much sleep after the birth of a new child.
Players, whether it be in football, tennis or rugby, will struggle to perform at their best if they haven’t been sleeping properly. This one little nugget of information might be enough to help you get one over on the bookies, who will be assuming that all people taking part in an event are operating at their very best. It isn’t much and obviously there is no guarantee that just because they’re tired means that a player will under-perform, but it is the sort of thing that you can look out for in order to get one over on bookmakers who have all the statistical information in the world.
Fan Media Is Helpful
There are all sorts of fan-led media organisations operating in the modern era. Whilst football is an obvious example of a sport that is dominated by fan-media, the same is true of the likes of tennis, rugby and cricket. Anything that people are passionate about will often result in them taking that passion and creating something with it, hence the explosion of podcasts, websites and YouTube channels talking to those involved in the sport. When speaking to such fan media, sports people are often less guarded then when chatting to the mainstream media.
This means that they can be guilty of saying things that they would ordinarily keep themselves. Whilst having a baby is an obvious example of something that might affect a player’s performance or the ability of a jockey to perform at their best, there are all sorts of personal things that might stop someone from being on top form. Imagine a scenario in which a jockey talks of how their brother was arrested and they’re worried about them. Whilst we’d all love to imagine that they would be focussed and concentrated once a race gets underway, they’re only human.
That is the sort of thing that they might let slip to fan media that they wouldn’t mention when speaking to The Times, or The Mirror, say. Equally, perhaps the presenter on a YouTube channel has told a tennis player that they have moved house and the player responds that they’re in the middle of moving themselves. Moving house is meant to be alongside having a child and coping with a death as being amongst the most stressful things that you can go through, so might that be something that stops them from playing to the best of their ability?
Social Media Can Be Important Too
The invention of the likes of Facebook and Twitter has been a boon for people that wish to remain up-to-date with those that they don’t know. You can now follow their account on Twitter, see photographs that they post to Instagram and become ‘friends’ with them on Facebook. If you’re looking to mine for information that a bookmaker might not have, this is exactly where to start. A photograph of a smiling family on Instagram, for example, might be posted to give the impression that everyone is happy, whilst in the background you might see some medication that hasn’t been put away.
Obviously this is an extreme example, but it is something that points to the kind of thing that might be missed by a bookmaker but picked up by an observant punter. If you want to get ahead of bookies when placing your bets, this is precisely the kind of thing that you need to look out for. Whilst it would almost certainly prove fruitless in 99% of cases, the one or two times it comes off can see you put in a situation where you can place a bet that bookmakers haven’t had time to react to in the market, giving you an advantage.
Think About More Than Just The Players
Another thing that bookmakers might not have the capacity to take into account is the situation of those that are responsible for helping players get into shape for events. If you want to bet on a football team, for example, the manager is a crucial part of how they are going to perform in an upcoming match. Knowing that they have suffered the loss of someone close to them, say, or have been suffering with an illness is the sort of thing that might cause them to make erratic decisions in the build-up to, or during, a match.
As a result, you can use that information to bet against the team performing to the best of its abilities, even though all of the players appear to be completely fine. Whilst that is specific to football, there are all sorts of people involved in other sports that aren’t just the players. Think of a world in which a golfer’s caddy isn’t in the right frame of mind for a tournament, for example, or a tennis player’s coach. Think of other team sports where the manager can be influential in how they play, knowing what a difference them being out of sorts can make.
Every sport has its own quirk that makes it interesting, offering you an opportunity to place a bet that uses information that wouldn’t come under the remit of a third-party company that is responsible for ensuring that bookmakers offer the correct odds. The better you know the sport that you’re betting on, the more likely that it is that you’ll be able to find something that bookmakers might not know. This is largely because bookies can’t look in-depth at every sport that they cover, whereas you only need to know about the thing you’re betting on.